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China has a disciplined workforce, while Russia possesses researchers and specialists. The Chinese generally improve on existing technology, while Russians have a reputation for innovation and unconventional thinking. It would take decades before Russia and China could become competitors in the global high-tech market, when they both develop into leading manufacturers of high-tech products. Yevgeny Shestakov, host of the Discussion Club, speaks with professor Sheng Shiliang, chief researcher at the Xinhua News Agency’s Center for the Study of Global Challenges, about the prospects of the Chinese economic model as a blueprint for other countries.
Yevgeny Shestakov: Some political science experts call China a lonely superpower because it has never had allies. Is this how you see China?
Sheng Shiliang: I’m afraid I have to somewhat disagree with my friend Professor Vladislav Inozemtsev (an interview with Professor Inozemtsev was published earlier).
First of all, before the First Opium War (1839-1842), China was the only large country in Asia. It did not need any allies since it had no rival that it couldn’t deal with by itself.
Second, China has had an ally in the past, the Soviet Union. However, that period did not last long - roughly from 1949 until late 1950 - and it did not end on good terms.
Third, if we take the United States as the model of what a superpower is, then China has never been and will never be one. Confucius said: "Don’t give others that which you don’t want for yourself.” So I don’t want China to be a world power that dominates the rest of the world and tramples on other nations. I don’t want China to be the great helmsman of all peoples, God forbid.
Fourth, if we form an alliance with another nation, that will inevitably lead us into confrontation with other nations. But China does not want enemies, it only wants friends. So, we say yes to friendship but no to alliances, even with our dear friends in Russia.
Shestakov: China is developing at an astounding pace. Is your country interested in exerting greater influence on global affairs? Is China interested in becoming a new power center?
Sheng Shiliang: Yes, China is interested in playing a larger role in global affairs but only as much as other emerging markets, like Russia, India or Brazil. And besides, a country’s influence depends on its overall strength, and in this China still lags behind Russia, the United States and the European Union. We still have a lot to do at home.
China is pursuing an independent foreign policy so I would say it is already a global power center, like Russia, India and the United States.
Shestakov: I’ve heard that Chinese textbooks say that the treaties China signed with Russia in the past are unfair. Is this true?
Sheng Shiliang: There is no way that textbooks could be published in China that contradict government policy, including the recent Sino-Soviet border agreement. As for border agreements from the 17th to the 19th centuries, even some Russian historians acknowledge these were unfair. But this does not change the border either de jure or de facto. Let’s leave past territorial disputes to our countries’ historians.
Shestakov: Many people are debating whether the Chinese model can be successful in other counties. Do you believe that other countries should adopt the model, or is it suitable for China only?
Sheng Shiliang: This may be at odds even with other Chinese analysts, but I don’t think that there is a Chinese model. If there was one, it would be based on certain principles and therefore it could be replicated elsewhere. Rather, what we have in China is a unique set of circumstances: the wise, authoritative and authoritarian Deng Xiaoping; a vast, cheap, undemanding and skilled workforce; a large economy teetering on the brink of a collapse after the death of Mao Zedong, for which even the slightest improvement was a great success. We had rather good relations with Western countries due to our rivalry with the Soviet empire. There were tens of millions of Chinese immigrants in the West who loved their country and invested in it. Finally, the Chinese are brought up with the concept of the golden mean. They value moderation. No country has ever had such a set of happy and unhappy coincidences.
If we call China’s method of economic development a model, then I can’t say it’s better than "any of its Western counterparts,” as they used to say in Soviet times. This model creates a large number of corrupted servants of the nation, so to speak, and widens the income gap - for example, the elderly in rural communities have to survive on $120 a year. I wouldn’t be proud of a model under which, for example, China imports iron ore at unreasonably high prices, processes it into rolled steel and then sells the steel for a fraction of a cost, polluting its soil, water and air and making only three or four cents per each dollar of the price of the finished product, let alone the anti-dumping claims brought by developed countries. So, our top priority is to change our country’s model of economic development.
Shestakov: Do you believe that Russia and China may become competitors in global markets?
Sheng Shiliang: I’d say China and Russia are natural partners rather than competitors, both from an economic and social perspective, and even from an intellectual viewpoint. China and Russia have competitive advantages when it comes to certain natural resources. China has a disciplined workforce while Russia has researchers and specialists. The Chinese typically improve on existing technologies while the Russians have the reputation for innovation and unconventional thinking.
Shestakov: China’s population is growing steadily, which requires more and more space. How does your country plan to address this problem?
Sheng Shiliang: Indeed, China’s population is immense and continues to grow. Under our great leader Mao Zedong, the Chinese population increased by several hundred millions because he made the mistake of denouncing harshly the rector of Beijing University in early 1950s, a prominent expert in population theory, for advocating policies to curb population growth.
At the same time, the Chinese government’s current, proactive policies to curb population growth helped prevent the birth of several hundred million children over the past three decades.
A solution to the population problem can only be found within our borders. China’s population totaled 475 million people 60 years ago. We might be able to return to this optimal number in 60 years.
Shestakov: Do you agree with those who say that Russia, in terms of its culture, is closer to Europe than to Asia?
Sheng Shiliang: Yes, I fully agree with this. To the Chinese, Russians are Europeans and Russian culture is part or a branch of the European culture.
Shestakov: Many Europeans fear China’s economic and cultural expansion. Is China trying to allay these fears in any way?
Sheng Shiliang: International economic cooperation and cultural exchange contribute to the development of a society, especially in today’s world of economic and cultural globalization. I don’t think that modern civilized Europeans are as fearful and thin-skinned as the Chinese leaders during the Cultural Revolution, who were afraid of all things foreign.
Shestakov: What do you think China will look like in 30 or 40 years?
Sheng Shiliang: I’m 68 years old already so I doubt that I will see my country in 2040 or 2050. But I imagine that China will be a prosperous and democratic country, tolerant of all ideologies and religions. China will be one of the great powers and a reliable partner for Russia, the United States, India, Japan and all other nations.